Eat Real Food
Could Real Food align its resources across agriculture, food, and grocery to lead a revolution of diet change?
In the quest for affordable nutrition, everything is on the table. Meat, vegetables, fish, processed food, fortification, and supplementation. While processed food will likely reformulate to deliver better nutrition, real food like meat, vegetables, and fish has the nutritional density advantage now.
Real food is improving through grass-fed, regenerative, and breeding practices. More farms understand the role of soil health. Biologics are improving. The keto diet is growing. Real food has momentum.
Ultra-processed foods (UPF) face headwinds. GLP-1 and inflation are reducing demand for UPF. The FDA is taking a stance against toxins and long ingredient labels. Influencers like Food Babe are changing consumer behavior. Should CPGs worry that bored tobacco and round-up lawyers are ready to ask, “Do UPFs cause diabetes?”
With so many forces against UPF, will agriculture, meat, and fish collaborate and convince Americans to change their diets?
Got Milk
The “Got Milk?” campaign was introduced in 1993 by the California Milk Processor Board, funded through a mandatory dairy industry checkoff program, where producers contributed a small fee based on milk sales to finance collective marketing efforts. It became one of history's most recognizable advertising slogans, leveraging humor and celebrity endorsements to reverse declining milk sales. Initially launched in California, the campaign quickly spread nationwide due to its cultural impact and popularity. By creating relatable, memorable ads that positioned milk as essential to everyday enjoyment rather than purely a health necessity, milk sales briefly rebounded, notably increasing from 740 million gallons in 1993 to 755 million gallons in 1994 in California. However, despite its iconic status and short-term sales improvements, the campaign ultimately faced ongoing headwinds as consumers continued shifting towards alternative beverages in subsequent decades.
The Other White Meat
Pork. The Other White Meat (1987) repositioned pork as a lean, healthy alternative to chicken. Within a year, consumer awareness of pork as a white meat tripled in some markets, and per-capita pork consumption began rising after years of stagnation. The slogan lasted two decades, during which pork demand and prices climbed – a $500 million increase in producer revenue was attributed in part to this campaign’s success. “Beef: It’s What’s for Dinner” and “Incredible Edible Egg” similarly used catchy phrases to boost commodity sales. Even public health drives like “5 A Day” (for fruits and vegetables) raised awareness, though translating that to consumption proved challenging. The key takeaway is that memorable messaging, repeated often, can reshape consumer perceptions and even purchasing – at least in the short to medium term. A powerful slogan or image becomes part of culture (e.g. the ubiquitous milk mustache), helping keep the product top-of-mind when consumers make choices.
Real Food
Imagine a “Real Food” campaign as a nationwide initiative uniting major stakeholders in the meat, fish, and produce industries to promote real, whole foods as a superior alternative to ultra-processed foods. In the U.S., ultra-processed products currently dominate diets – accounting for 57% of adults’ caloric intake and enjoy massive advertising support. Food and beverage companies spend $14 billion annually on U.S. ads, over 80% of which promote fast food, sugary drinks, candy, and snacks.
A Real Food campaign aims to shift consumer preference and market share away from UPFs toward whole foods by coordinating industry efforts and marketing investment of over $1 billion across three years. Key objectives include:
Increasing consumer awareness of the benefits of “real food”
Driving engagement (especially via digital media,
Ultimately changing eating habits to reduce chronic disease risks.
The campaign would target groups heavily exposed to junk-food marketing (children, teens, and communities of color) with positive, inclusive messaging.
How it might look….
Year 1: Launch & Consumer Awareness ($300 million)
In the first year, the campaign builds broad awareness of the “Real Food” message and establishes a vibrant digital presence.
Social Media & Digital Advertising (~50% – $150M): A heavy investment in Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, and search ads will ensure the campaign’s messages and content reach millions of consumers. This includes engaging influencer partnerships, popular nutrition bloggers, fitness personalities, and user-generated content challenges to spark viral interest.
Traditional Media (TV, Radio, Print, OOH – ~20% – $60M): To quickly build credibility and awareness, the campaign will run a burst of TV commercials during family-oriented programming, sports events and radio spots with memorable slogans positioning real, whole foods as tasty, convenient, and “cool.” Strategic out-of-home ads – billboards in high-traffic areas, transit ads, and posters near supermarkets – to reinforce the message. Traditional channels ensure the campaign reaches older demographics and broad audiences not always active on social media.
Retail Partnerships & Promotions (~15% – $45M): The campaign will collaborate with grocery retailers and food service outlets to create in-store promotions highlighting whole foods. Examples include “Real Food” branded supermarket sections with eye-catching signage and recipe cards, coupon incentives for purchasing fruits, vegetables, meat, and fish, and tie-ins with meal kit services featuring whole-food recipes. These promotions provide point-of-sale engagement to nudge consumers toward healthier choices during purchase decisions.
Community Engagement & PR (~10% – $30M): Grassroots efforts will launch to personalize the message. This includes funding local events, farm-to-table fairs, healthy cooking demonstrations in communities, school programs teaching kids about real food. Partnering with non-profits and public health campaigns. A PR team will secure media coverage on the harms of UPFs and benefits of whole foods, positioning the campaign as a positive movement. High-profile launch events and media appearances (with farmers, chefs, and doctors as spokespeople) will set the narrative.
Research, Measurement & Contingency (~5% – $15M): A portion is reserved for market research, message testing, and ongoing impact evaluation. Before launch, consumer surveys and focus groups will fine-tune messaging, ensuring it resonates across diverse demographics. Throughout Year 1, the campaign will monitor metrics (brand awareness, social media engagement, sales data for whole foods) and be ready to adjust tactics. Contingency funds allow mid-course corrections or additional pushes if certain channels underperform.
Overall, Year 1’s goal is to saturate the market with the Real Food message and create a buzz. By the end of the first year, we anticipate high awareness levels and initial shifts in consumer perception favoring whole foods over processed options.
Year 2: Expansion & Deeper Engagement ($350 million)
The second year will build on the awareness by driving deeper consumer engagement and habit change. The budget increases to roughly $350M to scale successful tactics and introduce new initiatives:
Digital/Social Media Activations (~45% – $157M): Strong digital spend continues, with refined targeting based on Year 1 learnings. Social content will shift from general awareness to more interactive campaigns – for example, challenges and hashtags (e.g. a “#RealFoodChallenge” where people post meals made from whole ingredients) to actively involve consumers. The campaign will also produce short-form video series, featuring quick healthy recipes or myth-busting comparisons between real and ultra-processed foods for YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram TV. Paid digital ads will be highly data-driven, using retargeting to encourage those who showed interest in Year 1 to take the next step such as downloading a meal plan or joining a mailing list for tips.
Influencer & Community Ambassador Program (~15% – $52M): This year allocates a larger share to influencer marketing and community-led content. The campaign will sponsor a network of “Real Food Ambassadors” – from nutrition experts and chefs to popular mom bloggers and youth influencers – to create authentic content praising whole foods. These ambassadors, representing diverse cultures and regions, help reach niche communities and add credibility. Funds will cover content creation, events hosted by influencers (e.g. healthy cooking webinars or farm visits streamed live), and possibly a few celebrity endorsements to broaden appeal. Such word-of-mouth style marketing is crucial as 81% of shoppers value clean-label, natural products and are highly influenced by trusted voices.
Mass Media & Public Service Campaign (~20% – $70M): Traditional advertising will continue focusing on public service-style messaging. By Year 2, the campaign may partner with government health agencies or medical associations to co-brand some ads, positioning “Real Food” as part of a national health solution. New TV/radio spots will feature testimonials (e.g. a family sharing how switching to whole foods improved their health) to emotionally connect with audiences. Print ads in popular magazines and more outdoor ads in food courts, bus stops, etc., reinforce the theme “Real Food for a Healthier You,” linking diet to personal well-being.
Promotions & Partnerships (~15% – $52M): The campaign will introduce loyalty and educational programs in collaboration with industry partners. For instance, a “Real Food Pledge” program might reward households for reducing their purchase of ultra-processed items, tracked via retailer loyalty cards, with discounts on produce, meat, and fish. Collaborations with meal delivery services or restaurants can promote limited-time “Real Food” menu items. Additionally, partnerships with healthcare providers or insurers could emerge – e.g. some insurers might offer premium discounts or wellness points for clients who take nutrition classes or meet produce intake targets, with the campaign supporting those efforts. These partnerships amplify reach and embed the campaign into everyday consumer touchpoints.
Monitoring & Optimization (~5% – $17M): Year 2 will invest in robust analytics. Sales data will be closely analyzed to identify which product categories are seeing upticks (e.g. higher produce sales or meat/fish demand) and which demographics are responding best. The marketing mix will be continuously optimized – budget may be reallocated mid-year toward the most effective social platforms or regions.
By the end of Year 2, the goal is not only high awareness but measurable behavior change – more Americans cooking with whole ingredients, looking for “real food” options, and perceiving those choices as modern, convenient, and desirable. Consumer surveys and sales figures should show an uptick in real food consumption relative to the baseline.
Year 3: Sustaining Momentum & Consolidation ($450 million)
The third year features the largest investment (~$450M) to consolidate gains, push any remaining consumers to change, and ensure the campaign’s impact is lasting. Key focuses include maintaining high visibility, addressing barriers to permanent diet change, and solidifying industry collaboration.
High-Impact Digital & Media Blitz (~40% – $180M): In the final year, the campaign will execute a “blitz” of content across all major digital channels, timed to coincide with key moments (e.g. New Year’s resolutions, Super Bowl, National Nutrition Month, back-to-school season). This includes immersive content like mini-documentaries (showing, for example, a family’s journey replacing processed foods with whole foods and the resulting health improvements) to be distributed on streaming platforms and social media. There will also be an uptick in interactive media – for instance, a “Real Food” mobile app or chatbot that provides recipes, tips, and daily encouragement, backed by advertising to drive downloads. Traditional ad bursts (TV/radio/outdoor) will surround these digital efforts, ensuring virtually no one can miss the message. After three years of messaging, we want the idea that “whole foods are better for you and just as accessible and tasty” firmly ingrained in the public mindset.
Educational Outreach & Advocacy (~15% – $67M): Year 3 will deepen educational efforts and possibly segue into advocacy. The campaign will fund more extensive educational content – from online nutrition courses for the public to toolkits for schools (so nutrition curricula emphasize distinguishing real vs ultra-processed foods). The campaign will also support community health workers and dietitians to run workshops in workplaces and community centers. Meanwhile, the industries might collaborate with policymakers for complementary measures, supporting things like improved food labeling or nutrition incentives.
Community Challenges & Incentives (~10% – $45M): To cement new habits, the campaign will organize nationwide challenges or competitions in Year 3 – for example, a “Real Food Challenge Month” where families sign up to minimize UPFs and share their progress. Corporate wellness programs may tie in, encouraging employees to participate. We will also introduce incentives such as scholarships or grants for schools that improve cafeteria offerings or for local corner stores that increase fresh food offerings. These initiatives keep the community energized and highlight success stories, inspiring others. By Year 3, momentum and peer influence can carry a lot of weight – people seeing neighbors or coworkers benefit from eating real foods will encourage them to follow suit.
Industry Unity & Brand Legacy (~10% – $45M): A portion of the Year 3 budget is devoted to ensuring the coalition of industries remains united, and the campaign has a lasting legacy. This includes a final high-profile summit or event (perhaps a “Real Food Congress”) bringing together meat, fish, and produce industry leaders, health experts, and influencers to celebrate progress and announce future commitments to promote healthy diets. The campaign might also explore creating a sustainable brand or certification (e.g. a “Real Food Certified” label for products or menu items that meet certain whole-food criteria), funded in part by this budget, to carry on the mission beyond the initial marketing push. By institutionalizing the collaboration, similar to how commodity checkoff programs created enduring slogans and marketing, the gains from the $1B investment can continue in the form of an ongoing platform or organization dedicated to real food promotion.
Evaluation & Reporting (~5% – $22M): At the close of Year 3, rigorous evaluation will measure outcomes. Funds are set aside for comprehensive surveys, sales data analysis, and health data tracking to quantify changes. Metrics will include shifts in market share (percent of food spending on whole vs processed foods), changes in average fruit/vegetable/meat intake, and even preliminary health indicators (if possible, e.g. slowed growth in obesity or type 2 diabetes incidence in targeted regions). The findings will be compiled into reports for stakeholders and could be published to contribute to research on health marketing. This transparency helps demonstrate ROI and lessons learned, and can rally continued support for keeping the movement alive after the formal campaign period.
Health Impact of Shifting to Real, Whole Foods
A major impetus for the “Real Food” campaign is the promise of significant public health benefits if Americans shift their diets away from ultra-processed foods. Ultra-processed foods (like sugary drinks, fast food, chips, candies, and packaged meals) are typically high in added sugars, unhealthy fats, salt, and additives, and low in nutritional value. High consumption of these products has been strongly linked to chronic health issues – and reducing that consumption while increasing whole foods (vegetables, fruits, whole grains, fresh meat and fish, etc.) can markedly improve health outcomes. The campaign’s success could therefore contribute to reducing rates of obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and more over time. Below is a data-backed analysis of expected health impacts:
Reduced Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases
Lower Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes
Weight Management and Obesity Prevention
Prevention of Other Chronic Diseases
Healthcare Cost Savings and Societal Benefits
Expected ROI for Industries: Market Share Growth & Revenue Impact
A coalition of the meat, fish, and vegetable industries investing over $1 billion in a marketing campaign must justify this expense through tangible returns in terms of both market share reclaimed from ultra-processed food companies and increased revenue for farmers, ranchers, and fishermen supplying real foods.
Shifting Market Share from UPF Producers to Whole Foods: The ultimate goal is to capture market share from the ultra-processed food sector. Currently, conglomerates selling sodas, chips, candy, fast food, and other UPFs command a large portion of Americans’ food dollars (57% calorie share). They also outspend healthy food industries in marketing; as noted, $14 billion a year goes to promoting unhealthy foods in the U.S.. By uniting, the meat/fish/produce sectors can present a competitive counterweight. If the campaign succeeds in even a modest consumer shift, the financial implications are significant. U.S. consumers spend roughly $1.8 trillion on food annually, including groceries and dining out. Suppose the campaign can sway consumers to redirect just 1% of that spending away from UPFs to real foods – that’s an $18 billion revenue shift in the economy. Even focusing on groceries alone (around $800+ billion yearly), a 1% share swing is ~$8 billion, and a 5% swing would be ~$40 billion in new sales for whole foods producers. These numbers dwarf the campaign cost. It’s not unrealistic: as health awareness grows, markets for natural and whole foods have surged – the market for natural/organic products is expected to exceed $300 billion in 2024, triple the level in 2007, indicating consumers are already moving this direction. The “Real Food” campaign can accelerate and capture this demand, ensuring that dollars spent on organic produce, grass-fed beef, or wild-caught fish come at the expense of processed snack cakes and sugary cereals.
Shifts in Consumer Buying Behavior: The campaign’s ROI will manifest as increased sales volume for meat, seafood, and produce. Participating industries can expect higher demand for their products as consumers fill their carts with more fresh items and fewer heavily processed ones.
Meat/Poultry: If successful, more families might cook fresh meals featuring chicken, beef, or pork instead of relying on frozen dinners or processed nuggets. The meat industry (worth an estimated $170+ billion in the U.S.) could see meaningful growth. For example, a 5% increase in domestic demand for meat due to the campaign would translate into billions in additional sales. Industry checkoff programs provide some precedent – the Beef Checkoff program’s promotions have been found to return an impressive $13.41 in industry revenue for every $1 spent on marketing.
Fish/Seafood: The U.S. seafood market (~$25–30B) might gain from consumers swapping processed protein (e.g. breaded fish sticks or deli meats) for fresh fish. A heart-healthy angle of the campaign could spur more fish consumption. Even a 10% uptick in seafood sales (driven by messaging around Omega-3s and whole protein) yields a strong ROI on that sector’s portion of the investment.
Fruits & Vegetables: Perhaps the biggest winner in a real-food shift is produce. If Americans heed the call to “eat the rainbow” of fruits and veggies instead of grabbing processed snacks, produce growers will see increased sales volumes. The combined U.S. fresh produce market (fruits ~$70B, vegetables ~$66B annually) could expand by double-digit percentages. For example, a large consumer survey in 2023 found nearly 70% of consumers are very conscious of avoiding harmful ingredients – a sentiment the campaign will tap into, which often translates to buying whole produce instead of foods with long ingredient lists.
Revenue Increase Estimates: By the third year, we expect a noticeable increase in aggregated sales for real food categories. A conservative scenario might be a 3–5% increase in total revenue for the meat, fish, and produce sectors due to the campaign’s influence. In dollar terms, that could be on the order of $10–$20 billion in additional annual revenue industry-wide. A more optimistic scenario could see a 10%+ sales boost, which would be tens of billions. Even the conservative estimate yields a healthy ROI: for roughly $1.1B spent over three years, getting, say, $12B in one year of added sales is a ~10:1 ROI – and those gains could persist or grow in subsequent years if the market share shift sticks. Historical analogies support high returns: the pork industry’s “Other White Meat” marketing returned about $25 in revenue per $1 spent, and the famous “Got Milk?” campaign, while not reversing long-term trends, did cause a 6% spike in milk sales in the mid-90s when it debuted.
Shifting Consumer Trends as Tailwinds: Importantly, the campaign is riding existing consumer trends that favor success. Consumers, especially younger generations, are increasingly seeking “clean label” and natural foods. Surveys show over 81% of shoppers find it important to buy clean-label products (minimal additives, real ingredients). This indicates a large receptive audience ready to be swayed further toward whole foods. There is growing distrust of Big Food and processed items and increased awareness of the link between diet and health, heightened by the COVID-19 pandemic’s focus on underlying conditions. These trends mean the campaign’s messaging will fall on fertile ground – we’re not trying to create demand out of thin air, but rather to capture and amplify a movement already underway. By uniting diverse food producers under one banner, the campaign can more effectively convert health aspirations into actual purchasing behavior. The ROI, therefore, isn’t just from converting the stubborn junk-food lover; it’s also from accelerating purchases by the health-conscious who may buy even more whole foods when inspired by the campaign. This could lead to things like increased market share for premium produce, grass-fed meats, farmers’ markets, etc., benefitting industry stakeholders across the value chain - from farm to retail.
Shifting Balance of Advertising Power: by investing now, the whole-food industries collectively protect their long-term relevance. UPF companies have long held the upper hand in branding and convenience; this campaign helps close that gap. It effectively creates a branded category “Real Food” that can stand toe-to-toe with branded processed snacks. Once consumers associate positive emotions and modern lifestyles with whole foods, similar to how “Got Milk?” made milk momentarily trendy, the participating industries may enjoy sustained higher demand with possibly lower need for price promotions. In economic terms, increasing baseline demand for their products can improve margins. The campaign also might reduce commodity price volatility by stabilizing demand. For instance, if more people eat produce year-round due to marketing, farmers might get better prices consistently.
Shaping Consumer Perceptions (Brand Equity Gains): The ROI is not purely in immediate sales – there’s also brand equity being built for the concept of “real food”. This benefits the industries in the long run. If the term “ultra-processed” becomes associated with negative health in the public mind, similar to how “trans fats” or “sugary drinks” have been demonized and “real food” is seen as premium and desirable, the industries’ products may attain a stronger pricing power and loyalty. Consumers might be willing to pay a bit more for what they perceive as real, high-quality food. By spearheading this campaign, these industries position themselves as allies of public health, leading to reputational benefits potentially fending off stricter regulations or gaining goodwill that can be leveraged in policy discussions. While hard to put a dollar value on goodwill, it is certainly a valuable asset – one that fast-food and soda companies currently lack due to health criticisms. In contrast, if the meat, fish, and produce sectors can say “We Made America Healthy Again,” that fortifies their consumer relationships in the form of customer lifetime value).
Shadows for UPF Competitors: It’s worth noting that any loss in market share for ultra-processed food producers is essentially a gain for whole food producers. Many large food corporations may feel pressure to reformulate products or market their healthier lines, which further shifts investment toward whole foods. The campaign could indirectly force UPF companies to either join the trend, some might start advertising the real ingredients in their products or acquire fresh food brands, or lose ground. This competitive dynamic can open up more market opportunities for Real Food stakeholders.
Shoring Up Domestic Demand: From an industry perspective, increasing domestic consumption of their products is a primary goal – it reduces reliance on exports and can stabilize prices. The campaign, by creating new domestic demand, could improve revenues, especially for smaller producers who may not have benefited from export markets. A study of the Beef Checkoff found that without its promotional efforts, domestic beef demand would have been significantly lower (on the order of billions of pounds less sold). Similarly, we anticipate that without this collective campaign, the trend of convenience and ultra-processed might continue to chip away at whole food consumption. The ROI can thus also be seen as avoiding losses that might have occurred in a do-nothing scenario. By invigorating demand, the campaign could ensure each sector maintains or grows its share of the “national stomach”.