Imperfect Knowledge: The Mouse that Roared
Whispers we are hearing in the shift to Food is Health
A big change is a series of small steps that get larger with time as early adopters catch on and the bandwagon effect accelerates. Hayek, in The Use of Knowledge in Society, wrote how the early signals of innovation lead to pivotal insights that shape markets.
“... I prefer true but imperfect knowledge, even if it leaves much undetermined and unpredictable, to a pretense of exact knowledge that is likely to be false.”
― Hayek. F. A.
Through this newsletter and some private WhatsApp groups touching on Food is Health and Agriculture we gather the signals from imperfect knowledge. You are welcome to join the Farm Gate Early Adopters group if you are a farmer or an entrepreneur developing AgTech.
Here are a few insights that may matter…
Climate Change - NGOs and firms focused on climate change forecast decreased climate emphasis over the next 10 years. Part of it is politics. However, the acceleration of technology, like nuclear, solar, and wind energy, looks like it might curtail the risk. Food is Health is in part, nutrient density. Obesity uses extra carbon to make the food and carry the fat. Carbon in the soil is required to improve nutrient density. Expect the climate groups to willingly align with Food is Health, first to improve health, but also because better nutrition generally leads to positive externality in climate.
Influencers - It took us nearly 40 years to remove red dye #3 from our food system. While regulation and toxin research are important precursors to change, expect influencers and zoomers (Gen Z), to place pressure on companies to speed change even before regulatory action. For example, without any regulatory action, CPGs in the US decided not to source wheat where Glyphosate has been used as a desiccant in harvest. The new HHS leader has said…
“Intake of highly chemical intensive processed foods were the primary culprit behind chronic diseases plaguing many Americans, including autoimmune diseases and obesity.”
The power of modern communication and messaging may indeed act faster than regulation.
AI - Silicon Valley knows more than the rest of us about the next 2 or 3 generations of AI models. They understand what the models do well and poorly. Listen carefully for their smoke signals. Prepare for major productivity improvements that help speed competition and insight, making experts faster and removing bureaucratic friction. Improvements that make it easier to solve a backlog of complex problems. Solutions that make it easier for everyone in healthcare to get the best standard of care. Or for every farm to have a good agronomy plan.
Nutrient Density - Grocery and food providers close to consumers are asking more questions about nutrient density and nutrition (macro and micro). We are seeing more debates about Omega 3/6 balance. GLP-1 is increasing curiosity around nutrition, flavor, soil health, and supply chain. The raw material for a wave of innovation.
Decline in Grocery - Recent data suggested that GLP-1 was driving a reduction in consumer demand for ultra-processed food. The reduction may also be due to inflation.
Lifestyle Medicine Curious - More than anecdotally we are seeing a massive uptick in interest in the board certification of Lifestyle Medicine. Health systems, in particular, are looking for solutions to make their primary care investments profitable. At the same time, health systems and providers are looking for ways to succeed in value-based care contracts and/or ACOs/health plans in which they participate or have ownership. And finally, the larger theme of reversing chronic disease is an ongoing focal point with few clear solutions. The impressive outcomes of lifestyle medicine meet the needs of both of these challenges. The simplicity of layering a board certification of Lifestye Medicine along with it’s simple six pillar approach on top of existing specialties, is almost too good to be true. But it isn’t. It is in fact, that simple and that good.
Redesign of Regulatory Oversight - The message is clear, things are being disrupted. Regardless of how things play out, they will differ from what they have been in the past. We are seeing the beginnings of a more streamlined approach to oversight. This is already yielding a new set of voices being heard and new ideas being shared. Good, bad or neutral, we won’t debate. What’s undeniable, it’s going to be different. How can Food Is Health and Soil to Cell use that as a tailwind and not a headwind?
Health Plans Hiding - After the tragic murder of United Healthcare CEO last fall, health plans have gone into hiding. Most execs have been instructed to stay away from or even remove social media accounts. They are retracting from public comment or any press - good or bad. After 30 years in an industry that rarely surprises me, even this one caught me off guard. The most unfortunate part, in my opinion, is a missed opportunity for at least one to stand up and say “enough” and lay a new path forward. It certainly creates more momentum for people like Mark Cuban, who has a clear vision of what healthcare and health insurance could/should look like.
Kids Matter - “The initial mission… is to address the childhood chronic disease crisis.” And it’s pretty clear why:
In the 60's a typical pediatrician would see one case of diabetes in his or her 40-50 year career. Now 28% of teenagers are prediabetic.
In 2022, an estimated 30 million children (40.7 percent) had at least one health condition, such as allergies, asthma, or an autoimmune disease.
Autism spectrum disorder now affects 1 in 36 children in the United States vs. 1 to 4 out of 10,000 children identified with the condition during the 1980s.
Eighteen percent of late adolescents and young adults have fatty liver disease, close to 30 percent of adolescents are prediabetic
More than 40 percent of adolescents are overweight or obese.
75 percent of young adults do not qualify for the military based in large part on their health scores.
The charge is to study the scope of the childhood chronic disease crisis and any potential contributing causes, including the American diet, absorption of toxic material, medical treatments, lifestyle, environmental factors, Government policies, food production techniques, and more. And provide policy and strategy recommendations to address it and END it.
Systemic Redesign -
Whether it’s insurance companies, providers, whether it’s HMOs, whether it’s patients or families - all of those are moving deck chairs around the titantic, our ship is sinking.
We spend $1.7T on poor nutrition and $1.9T (likely more by now) treating its health effects. Clearly, systemic change is required, and we are hearing more and more ventures focused on doing just that. That’s why we created the substack to begin with: to connect the dots.
